On April 8 and 9, 2020, a series of webinars was held to present reports on projections for climate change and climate extremes by 2100. These webinars covered the projections for the country, the Strumica, Polog and Skopje regions. They were followed by 30 to 50 participants, most of whom were 40% men and 60% women. The report was prepared as part of the project for preparing the Third Biannual Climate Change Report, which is being implemented by the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MoEPP) with technical and financial support from UNDP and GEF.
The moderator, Pavlina Zdraveva, introduced the seminar with the results of a survey conducted by the MoEPP regarding the public's perception of climate change, which shows that citizens mostly notice climate change through climate extremes, in fact through temperature difference, heat waves / cold waves and through changes in seasons.
Hence, the author of the reports, Dr. Vladimir Djurdjevic, associate professor at the Department of Meteorology at the Faculty of Physics, at the University of Belgrade with extensive national and international experience in projects funded by Horizon 2020, EU-FP, IPA, IOC-UNESCO and GEF related to climate and climate change, gave it his presentation of the projections made for the topic.
He pointed out that the projections were made according to three scenarios, covering several models, which show the changes in climate and climate extremes until 2100. The working methodology is such that it takes into account greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on climate change. One scenario shows the projections in case the state implements internationally recommended measures and policies, so that the level of greenhouse gases will remain very low, the other scenario creates projections with medium emissions of greenhouse gases and the third, and most unfavorable, makes high-level greenhouse gas emissions projections.
These scenarios show that the temperature in our country by the end of this century will rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius at the lowest emission of greenhouse gases, or to 2.5 at medium and 5 degrees Celsius at the highest emissions.
With the change in temperature, the seasons will change, and longer summers are expected, for which agriculture will suffer the most, and also an increased amount of precipitation and their inadequate distribution are projected, which will increase the risk of floods and the ability to deal with them.
A characteristic feature of these projections is that an increased number of tropical nights is expected, indicating that the night temperature does not fall below 20 degrees Celsius, which have a significant impact on humans, causing deterioration in health and normal functioning.
Specifically for the Strumica region, they are expected to grow up to 50 days during the summer season. In this region, an increase in dry days is also projected, and up to 10 days in a row, which could have a significant negative impact on agriculture. In order to avoid unexpected damages, etc. Djurdjevic recommended building reservoirs for efficient use of water resources.
A noticeable change by 2100, the Polog region, according to the most unfavorable scenario, would be accompanied by an increase in the number of summer days and up to 65 of the reference ones, which means two months more summer.
While for Skopje, the worrying projection is that in the most unfavorable scenario, the number of frosty days can be reduced by 60, which means that there will be almost no winter.
The main conclusions of these weavers were that we will inevitably need to take strict measures to reduce the effects of climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so as not to create situations of increased conditions for drought and floods, an extreme increase in the number of hot days and reduction of cold days.
You can follow the Webinars on YouTube on these links:
Scenarios for the state
Scenarios for the Strumica region
Scenarios for the Polog region
Scenarios for the Skopje region