Webinar: Future without climate change?



Presentation on the latest climate change mitigation scenarios, conducted in the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change and the Third Biennial Update Report (TBUR), which are being implemented by the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MoEPP) with technical and financial support from UNDP and GEF.

The presentation on the latest climate change mitigation scenarios took place on 27.04.2020. Each scenario includes less and more ambitious measures. The webinar was attended by 62 participants, out of which 50% were men and 50% women.

The climate change mitigation scenarios were conducted in the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change and the Third Biennial Update Report (TBUR), which are being implemented by the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MoEPP) with technical and financial support from UNDP and GEF.

The country’s ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is based on scientific data and analysis prepared by a team of experts from various academic institutions: MANU Research Center for Energy and Sustainable Development (ICEOR), Institute of Agriculture, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food and the Faculty of Forestry. The webinar was moderated by Natasha Markovska, Chief Technical Advisor of the project.

Aleksandar Dedinec from MANU presented three scenarios, each of them showing possible pathways for climate-change mitigation: a scenario with existing measures WEM, a scenario with additional measures WAM and the most ambitious one - a scenario with extended measures- e-WEM. The scenarios include detailed analysis of 47 combined measures and policies (32 in the energy sector, 11 in agriculture, forestry and other land use, and 4 in the waste sector). More than 60% of the measures are win-win, meaning that they do not only contribute to GHG emissions reduction, but are also financially feasible.


Based on the results, the highest reduction of the GHG emissions that can be reached in 2030 is 82% compared to 1990 level and it is accomplished by implementing the e-WAM scenario. The average yearly investments in this scenario are approximately 8.8% of the total average annual GDP.


Comparison of the scenarios

During the interesting discussion at the end of the presentation, it was pointed out that this could only be achieved with the support of the government, as well as through joint and close cooperation between all relevant institutions, the private and civil society sectors.

The potential for creating new green jobs was also emphasized; In a scenario where the proposed measures and policies are implemented, the number of new green jobs in various sectors would reach almost 10,000 by 2035.



There was also an exciting discussion on the progress indicators for monitoring the implementation and the success of the measures, as well as on how they directly or indirectly contribute to the specific sustainable development goals (SGDs).

You can check out the webinar on the following link. The presented scenarios are part of the Third Biennial Update Report (TBUR).

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